Tag: Nassim Taleb

You can’t handle it

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Not having enough creates a seriously damaging experience for people living in poverty.

Some people find a specific way to function and survive in it. It’s called the Scarcity Mindset – seeing things through a lens of lack and doing whatever you can just to survive. It can be helpful but if you spend too much time in that sort of environment, your brain will be wired for lack and poverty will kill you prematurely.

At the other end of the spectrum, having more than you can handle creates a seriously damaging experience, rewiring you brain for excess and it will kill you prematurely.

We don’t seem to have a safety mechanism for when we have too much. There isn’t a mindset that we can easily form to assist in survival. As Nassim Taleb suggests, “Abundance is harder for us to handle than scarcity.”

Most, if not all of us dream about being on one end of the spectrum. No one strives for poverty of course, but many strive for excess. Often those who strive for excess don’t realise that they already have it, such is the sinister nature of excess – it stops you from realising when you have enough.

One thing that can help is to have an Abundance Mindset which is not as easy to form as the Scarcity Mindset, because it takes intentional work (at least that is what I have found).

An Abundance Mindset comes from a belief that there is enough of everything for everyone, and it starts with gratitude for what you already have. Gratitude leads to generosity.

A Scarcity Mindset that creates an environment in which for me to win, everyone else has to lose, is toxic. An Abundance Mindset that comes from gratitude and encourages generosity is life giving. I know which one I’m aiming for.

Experience = Overconfidence

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Expertise is worth its weight in gold.

But overconfidence will kill you eventually.

Risky behaviour might pay off once or twice or even more, but eventually all of your chickens will come home to roost.

‘Experience is making the same mistake over and over again, only with greater confidence.’ (Michael Lewis quoting Carter Mecher)

Or as Nassim Taleb puts it, when talking about the attribution bias, ‘You attribute your success to skills but your failures to randomness’.

Statistically, someone is bound to succeed through risk taking and luck, just as someone else is bound to fail miserably through taking the exact same risks and having bad luck.

We live in a wicked world with complex problems, and we behave as if we live in a kind world, with simple problems. Generally, it seems to work for us when things are stable, but stability is never guaranteed and there are occasions when everything gets disrupted. (They seem to be happening semi-often at the moment).

If you’re environment is telling you that you are great at something, and paying you handsomely to do that thing, you will begin to believe that you are great at it and deserve to be paid well for doing it. But what if you are not actually great at it? What if it is just a matter of luck that has landed you in a place that has made things fall in such a way that it doesn’t matter what you do everything works well for you…until it doesn’t?

The answer is humility. Recognising that you could be wrong about something. About anything. Entertaining that thought, even just for a moment is an act of generosity to you and those around you.

Top 5 Books from 2023

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Looking back at my reading over the last 12 months I notice that it was a very fiction heavy year. Perhaps a little embarrassingly so – as much of the fiction was what I call my ‘junk food’ reading. But, here we are, overweight with murder solving stories from L.A. Outside of that, there is the embarrassment of discovering books that have been around for a couple of decades. I can be a little slow when it comes to finding good books, but it’s nice that they still hold up.

Here are some incredible highlights:

Man’s Search for Meaning – The Classic Tribute to Hope from the Holocaust, Viktor Frankl

A re-read. I keep hearing so many people talk about this book as a significant one in their lives and no matter how many times I read it, it still moves me. I come out with something different each time. The quote that has stuck with me this year is, “Happiness cannot be pursued. It must ensue. One must have a reason to be happy.”

Chasing happiness as an ends in itself will not work.

A second stand out quote:

“Man does not simply exist but always decides what his existence will be, what he will become in the next moment”.

We are not set in concrete. We get to choose what our existence will be.

If you have not read this book, read it. I have a copy that I can lend to you (I’ll need it back to read it again).

Blink – The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell

Sure, it’s been out for almost 20 years, but it was one of Gladwell’s books that I had never found my way to, until this year. There were a lot of illustrations about the way we can utilise the initial response we have in given moments. The one thing that I still find myself thinking about is the section on micro expressions, and how our expressions can change the way we feel. So I’ve been trying to smile more…

Fooled by Randomness – The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Nicholas Nassim Taleb

Published in 2001 and still totally accurate, also probably the only book that I have read by Taleb that I mostly understood.

By sheer weight of numbers and chance, some people are lucky for a period of time (in both life and markets). Often they then believe that their ‘method’ is the reason for their success, but then their luck runs out and they implode. If you give luck enough time, it will run out. This book highlights that just because something seems to have worked for you, that doesn’t make it the best method or even an effective method. Also, just because something hasn’t happened before, it doesn’t mean that it won’t happen in the future. Again, this book was written before the Great Recession, Donald Trump’s Presidency and COVID.

The Obstacle is the Way – Ryan Holiday

Another re-read and a great way to end the year. It is always a constant reminder that we will face obstacles in life, that is a guarantee, but our response to those obstacles shapes what our life looks like. It comes down to how we perceive the obstacle, the action we take and the will we have to keep going.

Fiction of the Year

Station Eleven – Emily St John Mandel

I don’t even remember how this book got on my list, but I’m so glad it did. It was an incredibly compelling story, flitting back and forth through time to share the characters’ journeys into a new world after a virus wipes out most of the global population (first published in 2014). I loved it and would read it again. It has also been made into a miniseries on one of the streaming services. That was okay (but they are never as good).

Other books read:

Wolf of the Plains: The Epic Story of the Khan Dynasty – Conn Iggulden (Very good read)

The Ruthless Elimination of Hurry – Jon Mark Comer

Originals – Adam Grant

The Lincoln Highway – Amor Towles

The Course of Love – Alain de Botton

The Screwtape Letters – C S Lewis

The Secret – Lee Child

And then many Michael Connelly books…

A Darkness More than Light – Michael Connelly

Lost Light – Michael Connelly

The Narrows – Michael Connelly

The Closers – Michael Connelly

Echo Park – Michael Connelly

The Overlook – Michael Connelly

Nine Dragons – Michael Connelly

The Drop – Michael Connelly

The Black Box – Michael Connelly

The Burning Room – Michael Connelly

The Crossing – Michael Connelly

The Wrong Side of Goodbye – Michael Connelly

Two Kinds of Truth – Michael Connelly

Dark Sacred Night – Michael Connelly

The Night Fire – Michael Connelly

The Dark Hours – Michael Connelly

Desert Star – Michael Connelly

The Late Show – Michael Connelly